East Texas professor ponders whether Texas should be considered battleground state

TYLER, Texas (KLTV) - President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s election was made possible by a rightward shift across the country, from Massachusetts, to Pennsylvania, to Texas.

“The polling definitely underestimated Trump’s actual vote on election day,” said University of Texas at Tyler Professor of Public Administration Dr. Ken Wink. “It was a red wave.”

Trump is projected to win Texas by roughly 14 percent, more than double his 2020 margin. Between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential margins in the Lone Star State shrunk by approximately 10 points. That led some to believe Texas may be a current or future battleground state.

“Texas is a red state,” said Wink. “This is over 30 years now that a Democrat has not won a statewide election in Texas. Certainly, those margins were getting closer. Trump has found an interesting coalition that is very atypical of what Republicans have been able to put together.”

“It’s not about identity politics, it’s about having a high quality of life. Right now, the Republicans get it, and the Democrats don’t get it.”

The GOP made significant gains among Latino voters in particular, with several counties in South Texas flipping in Republican’s favor.

Adding to the GOP’s gains, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) secured his third term in the upper chamber. After a less than three-point margin of victory in 2018, Cruz went on to win against Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX32) by roughly nine points.

“He did not fail to link Colin Allred to the national Democratic Party and their policy issues, and I think that was a great strategy, or a great tactic on his part,” Wink added, referring to Cruz.

2026 will be the next big trial for Democrats in Texas, with the Governor’s Office and U.S. Senator John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat up for grabs. Cornyn is running to be the next Senate Majority Leader, succeeding Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

“Midterm elections are partially a reflection on how well the president is performing,” said Wink. He said if Trump “is very successful, very popular, people are happy with the way things are going, it’s gonna be tough sledding for the Democrats two years down the road. But if things don’t go as well as planned, if the economy’s not booming, if Trump has trouble getting control of the border, if abortion continues to be an issue, you know, that may leave some opening for the Democrats.”