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First Alert: Potential tropical cyclone could impact East Texas, Gulf Coast next week

First Alert Weather Team watching Tropical Wave Invest 99-L closely
Published: Aug. 25, 2021 at 2:46 PM CDT
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TYLER, Texas (KLTV/KTRE) - While the last several days have been hot and humid across East Texas, changes are on the way in our forecast. The current ridge of high pressure over the south will be splitting over the next few days. These changes could allow for a tropical cyclone to move into the northern Gulf early next week.

Tropical Wave Invest 99-L as of 2 PM Wednesday.
Tropical Wave Invest 99-L as of 2 PM Wednesday.(KLTV/KTRE)

Currently a tropical wave, Invest 99-L, is located just to the north of Colombia. The National Hurricane Center has given Invest 99-L a 50% chance of development in the next two days, and 80% chance in the next five days. Meaning, we will likely have a tropical depression or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean by this weekend. The movement of this system over the next few days will be to the west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula region by Friday, and eventually north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

The 1 PM Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
The 1 PM Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center.(KLTV/KTRE)

The environment in the Gulf will be favorable for tropical development with the warm gulf waters and the absence of a strong ridge of high pressure in the area. Right now, our forecast models are in agreement that we will see something make its way into the Gulf, but the strength, location, and timing all remain uncertain. An example of this is the difference between how our American (GFS) and European (Euro) long-range models handle this system. The GFS reflects a system coming ashore along the Texas-Louisiana coast on Tuesday evening, while the Euro has landfall nearly a day earlier on Monday.

The GFS Model showing Invest 99-L Tuesday evening.
The GFS Model showing Invest 99-L Tuesday evening.(KLTV/KTRE)
The European Model showing Invest 99-L Monday evening.
The European Model showing Invest 99-L Monday evening.(KLTV/KTRE)

Uncertainty remains high on the important details of this system, and it has not yet even formed into a tropical cyclone or been given a name. We want to stress now is not the time to be alarmed, now is the time to pay attention and stay tuned for updates.

Stick with the First Alert Weather Team for updates as we get new information.

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