EAST TEXAS (KLTV/KTRE) - The northern half of East Texas is included in a SLIGHT (15%) risk of severe weather developing this afternoon/evening. The rest of East Texas is included in a MARGINAL (5%) risk for severe weather.
The Set Up:
We will see a surface low and upper-level low vertically stacked over each other setting up over central Texas by noon today. Scattered showers will continue to develop across East Texas with further thunderstorm development heading into our afternoon hours. Currently, the atmosphere in East Texas is moderately unstable thanks to dew points in the mid-50s. Combine all this together, along with the added lift ahead of the upper trough and we have a chance to see one or two strong to severe thunderstorms develop in our PM hours today/tonight.
Through our noon/early afternoon hours, we will see widespread scattered showers with light to moderate rainfall with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
As we head into our later afternoon hours, further destabilization of the atmosphere is likely, so we could possibly start to see thunderstorms developing around 4-5 PM.
Once the cold front that is associated with the surface low arrives in East Texas, it will begin to drive the convection eastward. Development of showers and thunderstorms along the front is likely and should be out of East Texas by midnight tonight. As the surface low migrates east, we will see a break in the rain during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow eventually seeing showers picking back up from the north as the moisture wraps around the low.
The biggest threats associated with these storms will be large hail as well as strong gusty winds that could reach upwards of 60-70 mph. The tornado threat is very low but cannot be ruled out completely. Localized flash flooding is a possibility in some low lying areas as well.