We are watching a developing storm system that promises to bring some rough weather to parts of the Southern Plains, including parts of East Texas. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has most of East Texas under a moderate risk for severe weather, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Looking at the latest data this morning, I would not be surprised to see a High Risk issued for areas north of I-20 this afternoon. We are just waiting to see exactly where the surface low will develop to get a better outline of where the greatest risk of severe weather will be this evening and overnight.
So here is the set up: At the surface, warm moist air will spread across most of Central and East Texas as well as Southeast Oklahoma and most of Arkansas. Later this afternoon an area of low pressure will develop near the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. This will force winds at the surface to the south southeast across most of the warm moist air.