Heavy rain along with a few severe storms possible tomorrow - KLTV.com - Tyler, Longview, Jacksonville |ETX News

Heavy rain along with a few severe storms possible tomorrow


The unusual wet patter for a La Nina year looks to continue as a strong storm system promises to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area starting tonight. Rainfall could add up to more than 2 inches for many areas before this storm system finally exits the area late Thursday. In addition to heavy rain, there is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms tomorrow across parts of East Texas, mainly south of Interstate 20.

The way it looks right now an area of low pressure will develop tonight across extreme south Texas and begin to move northeast towards Shreveport by Thursday morning. This low pressure will pull in warm moist air from the Gulf, allowing for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Areas along and south of the low pressures track will be in what we call the "warm sector" of the storm system. It is in this area where we could see a few severe storms, especially from noon to 6PM tomorrow afternoon. Now we normally don't expect to see severe weather during January but it is not unheard of. January 20th, 2010 was the last major severe weather event during the month of January in East Texas. Now the atmosphere will not be as volatile as we saw for that event but, the amount of energy and shear in the atmosphere is very similar to watch just occurred in the Southeast Sunday night. So for areas along and south of a Marshall to Longview to Tyler To Palestine line there is a threat of gusty winds and maybe an isolated tornado or two if an isolated thunderstorm can develop. The good news for East Texas is that as storms develop tomorrow they should quickly form into a squall line, limiting the tornado threat.

On the positive side, this system should bring heavy rain to the area. Now we cannot rule out a few local areas of flash flooding, but with 2 plus inches of rain falling over the area in a short period of time, lake levels should rise. The past few heavy rain events have occurred a little slower than what is expected with this system and over a drier ground. Soil moisture has increased with the rains of November and December so rapid run off should occur with heavier downpours causing our lake levels to rise. Stay with KLTV and KLTV.com for the latest. Any change in the track of this low pressure will cause a change in the threat area for severe weather.

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