Heat to end soon, but what about the rain? - KLTV.com - Tyler, Longview, Jacksonville |ETX News

Heat to end soon, but what about the rain?

TYLER, TX (KLTV) - It still appears the end of the hottest summer we have ever seen across East Texas is about end. I fact the last 100 degree day for 2011 will probably be either Thursday or Friday of this week. Then all eyes will turn to the Gulf of Mexico where a tropical system could be taking shape. Yesterday we mentioned this developing tropical storm could rob East Texas of the moisture needed to provide much needed rain across the area. Today there is a glimmer of hope.

The latest short range data, which has been performing very well by the way, is now placing a tropical storm along the Texas Gulf Coast by Saturday. This is a lot slower and weaker than what was shown yesterday making this scenario more believable. At the same time a cold front will be moving into the Red River valley. It now looks as though this front will pick up whatever does develop in the Gulf and push it off to the northeast. If the developing low is far enough to the west, this would send tropical moisture across the area giving much of East Texas rain. It all depends on how far west this system can develop but let's just say I am much more optimistic than I was at 6AM this morning.

Even if we don't get the rain, this strong front will usher in an autumn type air mass. With the longer nights and extremely dry air, low temperatures next week could be near 60 degrees if not lower in a few places. Now if we do see rain this weekend our high temperatures next week could be in the upper 80s due to a little soil moisture. If we don't get any rain we will still reach the 90s but the drier air will make it feel as though we are in the upper 80s.

As this first autumn air mass modifies by the end of next week, highs will likely climb back into the middle 90s. However, it does appear an even cooler air mass could be on the way for the following weekend not allowing temperatures to reach the century mark again. By the time this second air mass modifies, it should be too late in September to see the century mark again so the longest summer ever looks to be coming to an end.

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