EAST TEXAS (KLTV) - Late Sunday/early Monday, an upper-level trough will begin to move eastward across the central states along with a surface low and a trailing cold front.
For the first half of Monday, a decent southwesterly flow is going to feed moisture from the gulf into East Texas. Dew points reaching into the 60s will allow for some low-level instability. Heading into the late afternoon, the cold front should start to move through East Texas, giving the lift needed for these showers and thunderstorms to develop.
As of right now, the western half of East Texas is in a MARGINAL RISK (5%) of severe weather, and the Eastern half of East Texas is in a SLIGHT RISK (15%) of severe weather. Development of a strong line of storms with embedded supercells is fairly likely for this system. Depending on how early this system can develop and strengthen will determine how strong/severe these storms will get before they leave our area.
The greatest threat for East Texas is damaging winds but we cannot rule out a chance for a tornado to develop. Hail will also be possible. The cold front should be out of East Texas late Monday/early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers to persist early on Election Day before skies start to clear out later in the afternoon.
As Monday gets closer, we will have a better look at the atmospheric set up for East Texas and will also have a better breakdown of timing as well. Make sure you have your free KLTV/KTRE First Alert Weather apps downloaded and keep those phones/tablets charged up. We will keep you updated.